Policy Interaction , Expectations and the Liquidity Trap ∗
نویسندگان
چکیده
We consider inflation and debt dynamics under a global interest rate rule when private agents forecast using adaptive learning. Given the zero lower bound on interest rates, active interest rate rules are known to imply the existence of a second, low-inflation steady state. Under learning the economy can slip below this low-inflation steady state and be driven to an even lower inflation floor supported by a switch to an aggressive money supply rule. Fiscal policy alone cannot push the economy out of this liquidity trap. Raising the inflation floor sufficiently can ensure a return to the target equilibrium. JEL Classification: E63, E52, E58.
منابع مشابه
Monetary Policy and Japan ’ s Liquidity Trap
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In the basic New Keynesian model in which the monetary authority operates a Taylor rule, multiple rational expectations equilibria arise, some of which display all the features of a liquidity trap. We show that a loss in confidence can set the economy on a deflationary path that eventually prevents the monetary authority from adjusting the interest rate and can lead to potentially very large ou...
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During the long economic slump in Japan, monetary policy in Japan has essentially consisted of a very low interest rate (since 1995), a zero interest rate (since 1999), and quantitative easing (since 2001). The intention seems to have been to lower expectations of future interest rates. But the problem in a liquidity trap (when the zero lower bound on the central bank's instrument rate is stric...
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